对茧丝价格波动的过程和原因进行了分析,说明茧丝不但价格不断波动,其价值随着时间的变化也会发生变化.茧丝价格的变化有明显的周期性,可分为上升期和下降期.在上升期会出现价格和需求一起上涨的现象,具有“吉芬商品”的特征.供求关系的改变是价格变化的动力.供求关系中的需求由实际需求和投机需求构成,投机需求在价格波动周期的后期对价格的影响会越来越大.茧丝价格的变化过程是人们观念的改变过程,更是丝绸产品内在价值被发现的过程.%After analyzing the process and cause of the fluctuations in prices of the cocoon silk, this paper discovers that the price of the cocoon silk continuously changes and the value of the cocoon silk also varies with the time. There is obvious periodicity of rising and descending phases in the price fluctuation of the cocoon silk. The price and requirement of the cocoon silk will ascend together in the rising phase, which has the characteristics of "Giffen Goods". The changes of the supply demand relations are the motive power for the price fluctuation. The requirements in the supply-demand relations consists of actual demands and speculative demands. However, the influence of speculative demand on the price will be more and more obvious at the later stage of price fluctuation. The procedure during which the price of cocoon silk changes is also the process in which people's opinions change and the inherent value of silk products is discovered.
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