Preliminary numerical simulation of potential earthquake-induced tsunami in East China Sea

摘要

In this paper, we present a numerical simulation of the propagation of a tsunami in the East China Sea, which might be induced by a hypothetical M8.5 earthquake in Okinawa Trough. Our results show that the initial maxi-mum wave height of tsunami could reach as high as 4.3 m for the hypothetical earthquake. It would take 3.5～4 hours for the tsunami to propagate to the coast of Zhejiang Province, and 7～8 hours to the near-shore of Shanghai. The peak tsunami height could be up to about 2 m in the coast of Zhejiang Province. Based on the numerical ex-periments, we plot the arrival time contours of tsunami in East China Sea and time history curves on the three ob-servational stations, and discussed the significance of the pre-analysis.