新常态下区域农户收入与农业贷款关系的实证分析——以安徽省为例

摘要

当前"三农"问题已成为农村经济发展的核心问题,而农民增收则是"三农"问题的关键.安徽省作为中部地区的农业大省,农民人均纯收入更是衡量经济发展的重要指标.在此基础上,本文选取1991-2013年23年间农业贷款余额以及农民人均纯收入的数据,运用平稳性检验、Granger因果关系检验以及VAR模型对安徽省农业贷款对农民收入增加以及农村经济发展的作用机制和贡献度进行实证分析,根据实证分析的相关发现提出相应的政策建议.%Recently, the issue of"San Nong" (including agriculture, rural areas and farmers) has become a nuclear concern of rural economic development in China, and the increase of the farmers'income is the crux of"San Nong" issue. Anhui is a big agricultural province of central China, and per capita net income of the farmers is an important indicator of economic development. On this basis, selecting the agricultural loan balance from 1991 to 2013 and the data of per capita net income of the farmers, the paper empirically analyzes the mechanism and contribution of agricultural loan to farmers income increasing and agricultural economic development by means of stationary test, Granger causality test and VAP model. Based on empirical analysis of relevant findings, it puts forward relevant policy suggestions.