黄河三角洲高效生态经济区产业结构与劳动力就业结构协同优化研究

摘要

Based on time series data from 1995 to 2010 of Binzhou ,the central city of the Yellow River Delta efficient eco-logical economic zone ,and by means of statistical dynamic model and co -integration model ,synergy of industrial structure and employment structure in the region are estimated .Studies show that there is a long -term stable relationship among industrial structure adjustment and the total number of employed persons and the changes of the total number of employees in tertiary in-dustry .The total number of employees is only a one-way Granger cause of transformation of industrial structure ,while there is a two -way Granger cause between transformation of industrial structure and total number of employees in tertiary industry . It is more effective to accelerate the development of tertiary industry than the traditional policy of employment expansion in or-der to upgrade the industrial structure in the regions .%通过对1995～2010年滨州市的时间序列数据采用动态统计与协整模型分析，测算了该区域产业结构与劳动力就业结构的协同程度。研究表明，该区域的产业结构调整与从业人员总数，以及与第三产业从业人数变动之间存在着长期稳定关系；地区从业人员总数只是产业结构转换的单向格兰杰原因，而产业结构转换与第三产业从业人数之间互为格兰杰原因，可以实现二者的协同优化。相对于传统的扩大就业政策而言，加快第三产业发展更加有助于该区域的产业结构升级转换。