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随机-区间混合不确定性分层序列化多学科可靠性分析方法

     

摘要

针对多学科问题中随机型与区间型不确定性共存的可靠性分析问题,基于序列化变量处理框架,将原问题分解为区间可靠性分析和概率可靠性分析2个子问题,并建立相应的求解过程。其中,在区间可靠性分析中引入了学科间一致性约束,减轻多学科耦合分析带来的计算负担;在可靠性分析中集成先进均值法、圆弧搜索法和有效集拟牛顿法,构造了一套渐进收敛的处理策略。最后,基于宽容分层思想构造两个子过程的迭代关系,实现随机型和区间型不确定性的同时处理。采用1个数值算例和1个飞行器多学科可靠性分析应用算例,从不同角度验证所提出方法的有效性。结果表明:求解效率比已有方法有所提高,且该方法对各种约束函数的可靠性分析问题的适应性能力更强。%For the reliability analysis problems in multidisciplinary systems with stochastic and interval uncertainty models in coexistence, based on the sequence of variable processing framework, the original problem is decomposed into the interval reliability analysis and probabilistic reliability analysis sub⁃problems, and the corresponding solution procedure is established. Among them, interdisciplinary consistency constraints are introduced into the in⁃terval reliability analysis to reduce the calculation burden of multidisciplinary coupling analysis; advanced mean value method, arc search method and active set quasi Newton method are integrated into reliability analysis process to construct a set of asymptotic convergence processing strategy. Finally, we build the iterative relationship between the two sub⁃processes based on the idea of tolerance hierarchical structure and process random and interval uncer⁃tainty simultaneously. A numerical example and a reliability analysis application in multidisciplinary system of flight vehicle are demonstrated to verify the validity of the proposed method from different aspects. Simulation results show that the efficiency is increased and adaptability is rather strong in the mode of various initial values and design points.

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