运用文献资料、录像观察、数理统计、对比分析等方法对41、42、43届世锦赛女子团体决赛前8名、全能决赛前8名和各单项决赛前3名运动员的比赛情况进行研究分析,探讨伦敦奥运周期世界女子体操竞争格局。结果表明：女团奖牌仍然是美、俄、中三国角逐,美国全能型人才储备充足,实力雄厚,已成为女团的＂领头羊＂;俄罗斯凭借穆斯塔菲娜和科莫娃两名高手使团体实力大增,堪可＂争金夺银＂;中国女队的跳马和自由体操仍然整体弱势,传统优势项目高低杠的编排已经不适应国际评分的潮流,整体离女团冠军的目标还有一定的差距。女子全能奖牌的竞争还在俄、美、中之间展开,穆斯塔菲娜是金牌的最有力竞争者。跳马金牌最有可能被美国获得;特维德尔和穆斯塔菲娜将是与我国争夺高低杠金牌的强劲对手;平衡木是中国的优势项目,是较有把握的夺金点;眭禄的自由体操具备世界一流的竞技水平,有望与姚金男联手冲击奖牌。%By referring to relative material,watching the videotapes,doing statistic analysis and comparing the leading women athletes＇ final performance in the 41st,42nd and 43rd World Championship of Gymnastics,this paper analyzes about the competition situation of the world women gymnastics in London Olympics.It shows：the first three prizes of the team competition will still shared by the USA,Russia and China and the American team has been the leading one because it includes enough all-around athletes;the Russia team has greatly improved with the two excellent athletes Tweddle and Mustafina so that this team will probably get the Gold or Silver;the Chinese team on the whole has shortcomings in vault and floor exercise,so there is still little possibility to get the Gold.The women＇s all-around competition will also shared by the USA,Russia and China,and Mustafina is most likely to get the Gold;the USA will possibly get the gold of vauTweddle and Mustafina will be the two main competitors to Chinese team;Chinese team has advantages in balance beam so the Gold will possibly go to it;Sui Lu＇s performance at floor exercise is among the world＇s top ones and she will possibly get the medals together with Yao Jinnan.
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