辽宁省未来7d土壤墒情逐日滚动预报方法研究

摘要

基于气象台定量预报数据和自动土壤水分监测数据等实时和历史资料,采用土壤水分平衡原理,研究了辽宁省未来7d土壤墒情逐日滚动预报方法.结果表明:预报模型稳定性好,能够较好地模拟出辽宁省未来7d土壤墒情的定量演变趋势,首次实现了土壤墒情的定量化预报、精细化(县级)预报及逐日滚动预报.该方法成功实现的关键之处在于采用回归分析方法实现了气象台提供的预报要素和模型所用预报要素之间的转换.%By using the real-time and historical datasets of the quantitative forecast data from National Meteorological Center of CMA and automatic soil moisture monitoring data,the daily rolling forecast of soil moisture in the next seven days in Liaoning province was researched with the theory of soil water balance principle.Results demonstrate that the forecast model is stable,and can better simulate the quantitative evolution trend of soil moisture.The quantitative forecast,fine forecast,daily rolling forecast on soil moisture are realized firstly by this model.The key to the successful implementation of this method is the realization of the conversion between the meteorological forecast elements supplied by observation and the elements used in the model based on the regression analysis method.