“菲特”(1323)台风降水的极端性分析

摘要

Based on precipitation data from 1981 to 2013 from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI) of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA),the percentage method was used to investigate the extreme characteristics of precipitation brought by tropical cyclone "Fitow" and to analyze the features of the precipitation during the recreatment peroid.Results show that the surface gauge stations whose daily rainfall amount,hourly maximum rainfall intensity and total rainfall amount exceed the extreme rainfall threshold of single station and of all the stations range enough widely to cover the whole Shanghai and the north of Zhejiang province during "Fitow" period,moreover,the surface gauge stations whose daily rainfall and total rainfall are rarely observed in more than 100 years are able to account for a considerable proportion,and some of them even reach their record level.Compared with the extreme daily rainfall amount,the extreme total rainfall amount covers a smaller area,its extreme nature is more evident.The hourly maximum rainfall intensity is the least extreme.%基于1981-2013年间的热带气旋降水资料,使用百分比法研究了台风“菲特”所带来降水的极端特性,并进行了降水重现期特征分析.结果表明:台风“菲特”期间的日降水量、小时雨强、过程降水量超过“单站热带气旋极端降水阈值”和“中国热带气旋极端降水阈值”的站点几乎覆盖了整个上海以及浙江北部地区,并且日降水量和过程降水量达百年一遇标准的也占相当大的比例,甚至有的站点创历史极值,此次过程在这些地区是很罕见的.相比较而言,“菲特”影响期间,极端日降水和极端过程降水的分布范围以及极端性都大于小时雨强,极端过程降水较极端日降水分布范围小,但极端性更强.