A key factor of numerical typhoon prediction models is the initial field .COSMIC (Constellation Observation System of Meteorology ,Ionosphere and Climate) satellite data assimilation was used to improve the initial condition ,and its effect on improving tropical storms (or typhoon) prediction was evaluated . Employing the GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System ) which was developed independently by China ,typhoon Usagi(1319) was simulated .Analyses are made based on the various outputs ,such as temperature , humidity , vorticity , divergence and pseudo-equivalent temperature . The results show that COSMIC data ,comparing to the radiosonde data ,can enhance the ability of typhoon path and precipitation forecast assimilation .So this research indicates that assimilation of satellite data contributes to the improvement of GRAPES model as well as provides an example on preventing typhoon disasters and reducing damages .%台风数值预报的关键之一在于给定准确的模式初始场.本文使用气象、电离层和气候星座观测系统(COSMIC)的卫星资料,通过资料同化技术改善数值天气预报模式的初始场,进而评估数据同化技术对台风(或热带气旋)预报的改善效果.使用我国自主研发的数值天气预报模式,对1319号台风"天兔"进行模拟试验,对温度场、湿度场、涡度散度场及假相当位温场进行诊断分析.试验结果表明,与同化常规探空资料相比,COSM IC资料的同化可减小模式预报台风路径误差,台风附近降水落区更为集中.研究评估了掩星资料同化对模式的改进作用,并能为台风预报技术和防灾减灾提供参考.
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