我国环境群体性事件预警指标体系及预警模型研究*

摘要

近年来，随着我国经济高速发展，环境受到不断破坏，环境群体性事件成为高速上升的特殊公共安全事件，严重危害了社会的稳定与可持续发展。通过案例调研，研究了环境群体性事件的原因和特点，构建了环境群体性事件预警指标体系，探讨了每个指标的设置原因、作用与影响范围，最后建立了环境群体性事件背景值与环境事故指标相互结合的双层预警模型。研究结论为管理和调控环境群体性事件提供科学依据。%The rapid development of domestic economy in recent years brings about a deteriorating environment. Environmental group in-cidents have been enhanced at a high speed into a special type of public security incidents seriously harming the social security and sustain-able development. Through case research, this article investigated causes and distinguishing features of environmental group incidents and constructed its forewarning index system with detailed discussion on the adoption reasons, functions and sphere of influence of each specific index. At last, the article also established a double-deck early-warning model which combines the background value of environmental mass disturbance incidents with its environmental accident index. The conclusion of the research may provide a scientific basis for the man-agement, regulation and control of environmental group incidents.