“三海”问题上美国对华立场的时间序列法分析

摘要

通过历史法梳理出冷战结束后到本文研究的截止时间(2014年8月27日)内，美国在东海、台海和南海问题上对华立场的标志性事件，以专家法赋分进行半定量化处理，以时间序列法进行研究，结论表明：自冷战结束后，美国在“三海”问题上对华采取了一贯性的遏制立场。这一趋势在2009年以后，尤其在2011年后呈加剧态势，本文的工作为预测未来美国在“三海”问题上可能采取的对华立场提供了有科学依据的借鉴。%Through historical method, the authors teased out the U. S. ’ s stance on Chinaˊs landmark events in the "Three-sea" issues since the end of the Cold War. After conducting treatment by expert semi-quantitative method and time-series studies, the authors drew the conclusion showing that:since the end of the Cold War, United States took consistent stance on China in the"Three-sea" issues con-stantly. This trend, after 2009, especially after 2011, was exacerbated. The work of this paper is to predict the future of the U. S. ’ s stance toward China in the "Three-sea" issues, expecting to provide a reference and scientific basis.