运用SWOT分析、GE矩阵选择构造情景的关键要素，继而采用马尔科夫链、非线性规划等方法计算情景概率，结合逻辑判断对所列情景组合进行缩减、归类汇总及排序，由此得到决策型情景方案，在此基础上判断未来我国自主创新能力建设可能面临的战略态势。研究表明，未来15年，我国自主创新能力建设在“内部形势尚可型”情景下进行的可能性最大，“内部形势利好型”情景出现的可能性最小，需高度警惕“内部形势严峻型”情景的出现，未来面临的战略态势最有可能的是“喜忧参半”的局面。%This paper identified the key elements to construct scenarios in accordance with SWOT analysis and GE matrix, and decision-making scenarios were obtained according to logic judgment and numerical value of scenario probability calculated by using Markov chain and nonlinear programming. On that basis, the strategy situation of capacity building of indigenous innovation in China was analyzed. The research shows that the national building of indigenous innovation is most probably developed in the situation of"acceptable internal situa-tion", while least likely in "favorable internal situation". Moreover, we should pay more attention to avoid the appearance of a "severe internal situation". Therefore, the capacity building of China's indigenous innovation will most likely face a situation in which crisis and opportunity coexist in the next 15 years.
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