基于影响模型的网络舆情演化与传播仿真研究

摘要

Simulation method has become a popular method for the Network Public Opinion ( NPO) research nowadays. This paper at-tempts to introduce the impact model into NPO simulation. We investigate the influence of the transmission contents and netizens on the NPO evolution mechanism based on empirical studies and simulation method. The model can clarify the actual rules and circumstances dur-ing the process of NPO evolution. The study provides an individual behavior modeling foundation for the research on NPO evolution and transmission mechanism by using simulation method.%用仿真方法对网络舆情演化机理进行推演分析已成为当前网络舆情研究的一个热点。引入影响模型，基于实证调查设定网民个体属性与交互行为参数，通过仿真方法考察网民个体行为在网络舆情传播过程中的作用，重点研究了传播内容以及网民个体属性对舆情演化传播的影响。测试表明该模型能够很好的契合和解释网络舆情传播演化过程的实际规律与现象，为进一步使用仿真方法研究网络舆情演化与传播模式提供了个体行为建模基础。