政府主导的区域战略性新兴产业风险评估方法研究*--基于产业竞争情报视角

摘要

Purpose/Significance] At present, the government-leading regional strategic emerging industries are facing huge risks in the process of development. The existing researches mainly focus on the risk identification and risk classification of strategic emerging indus-tries, while there are relatively less studies on the risk assessment of regional strategic emerging industries. This article aims to provide a new risk assessment method for government-leading regional strategic emerging industries so as to provide guidance for the local govern-ment to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries. [ Method/Process] By introducing the industrial competitive intelli-gence theory into the risk assessment of regional strategic emerging industries, this article, after discussing the functions of the theory in the risk assessment, analyzes the potential risks of the government-leading regional strategic emerging industries and the requirements of the strategic emerging industry risk assessment on industrial competitive intelligence, and proposes a 3D risk assessment framework for regional strategic emerging industries from the dimensions of the industry itself, the industryˊs environment and the industryˊs competitor. With the 3D risk assessment framework, the article makes a risk assessment for the new energy automotive industry in Beijing. [ Result / Conclusion] The 3D risk assessment framework constructed in this paper with the theory of competitive intelligence can help conduct a comprehensive and effective risk assessment of regional strategic emerging industries, so as to promote the healthy and orderly development of them.%[目的/意义]目前，以政府主导的区域战略性新兴产业在发展过程中面临极大风险。已有研究主要集中在战略性新兴产业发展中的风险识别和风险类型划分方面，对如何进行区域战略性新兴产业风险评估的研究相对较少。故旨在为政府主导的区域战略性新兴产业提供一种新的风险评估方法，为地方政府推动战略性新兴产业发展提供指导。[方法/过程]将产业竞争情报理论引入区域战略性新兴产业风险评估工作中，在探讨产业竞争情报在区域战略性新兴产业风险评估中的作用的基础上，分析了政府主导的区域战略性新兴产业在发展中面临的风险因素和区域战略性新兴产业风险评估对产业竞争情报的需求，从产业自身维度、产业环境维度和竞争对手维度提出了区域战略性新兴产业的三维风险评估框架，并利用该框架对北京市新能源汽车产业进行了风险评估。[结果/结论]利用竞争情报理论构建的区域战略性新兴产业三维风险评估框架，可以对地方战略性新兴产业发展进行全面、有效的风险评估，从而促进产业健康有序发展。