国内外技术预见研究的热点和趋势分析

摘要

[目的/意义]以Web of Science和CNKI数据库中技术预见研究的文献为数据来源，对技术预见研究国家、研究热点和趋势进行分析，并为我国今后技术预见研究提供参考和建议。[方法/过程]在文献计量方法基础上，将熵权法用于国家学术影响力综合评价；在关键词共现网络中引入链路预测方法来探测新的可能的方法组合，为我国技术预见方法研究提供新思路；并将TRIZ技术系统进化法则用于技术预见研究趋势的分析。[结果/结论]在国家学术影响力综合评价方面美国处于绝对的优势地位，我国排名11位；技术预见方法的组合和集成研究是国内外的一个研究热点和趋势；在研究内容上，技术预见在实际应用层面的研究还较为薄弱，要重点加强在新兴技术领域的应用研究。%Purpose/Significance]Taking Web of Science and China Academic Journal Network Publishing Database (CNKI) as data sources, this article conducts analyses of the research countries, the hotspots and trends in China and abroad on technology foresight (TF) research for the purpose of providing references and suggestions to the future technology research of China. [ Method/Process] The paper uses the entropy coefficient method on bibliometrics for WOS papers for comprehensive evaluation of national academic influence. We in-troduce link prediction method to keywords co-occurrence network to detect new possible method combinations and to provide new ideas for foresight research in China. The TRIZ technology system evolution rules are used to foresee the trends. [ Result/Conclusion] It is found that the United States holds an absolute advantageous position in the evaluation of national academic influence in TF while China ranks the 11 th;the combination and integration of foresight methods is a research hotspot and trend at home and abroad; the TF study of industrial applications is still weak and the application research of emerging technologies needs to be strengthened.