政府支出的构成、宏观经济波动与社会福利--基于动态随机一般均衡的视角

摘要

基于包含政府支出不同构成成分的NK－DSGE模型，本文对政府支出不同构成成分的宏观经济效应以及社会福利效应进行了分析。结果表明：（1）生产性政府支出对于产出具有最大且持续性最强的冲击效应，并且对于消费具有“挤入效应”；（2）相对而言，教育和医疗等对于私人消费具有完全替代性的政府支出对于私人消费具有最大且持续性最强的冲击效应；（3）相对而言，生产性政府支出冲击引起了最大的社会福利损失，而教育和医疗等对于私人消费具有完全替代性的政府支出冲击引起的社会福利损失则相对较小。由于我国政府偏好于生产性政府支出，因而本文的研究结论表明，在当前内需不足的背景下，增加教育和医疗等对于私人消费具有完全替代性的政府支出有利于促进消费、拉动内需，并且这一方面政府支出的增加也有利于降低政策引起的社会福利损失。%In this paper , we consider a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with different components of government spending , and analyze its effect on macro -economy and social welfare . The Bayesian impulse response functions of govern-ment spending shows that , the effect of productive government spending on output is the biggest in quantity and longest in persistence , fur-ther , it has a crowned in effect on private consumption . The spending which can be perfectly substitute by private consumption has a biggest and longest persistence effect on private consumption . The result of social welfare analysis argues that , if government spending e-quals productive government spending , the social welfare loss is much higher . And if government spending equals government consumption spending which can be perfectly substitute by private consumption , the social welfare loss is much lower . Therefore , change the structure of government spending , and increase the spending which can be perfectly substitute by private consumption , may be helpful for stimulating domestic demand and improving social welfare .