国际生产分割视角下的中国双边贸易平衡--以东亚经济体为例

摘要

In order to explain the fact that China’s trade deficit with East Asian economy grows continu-ously,this paper empirically analyzes the panel data of bilateral trade in parts and components between Chi-na and 8 EA economics from 1992 to 2012 under the background of international fragmentation of produc-tion,based on the perspectives of overall,countries(regions)and industry respectively. The results show that:as a trade hub in the international production networks of East Asia,China’s import of parts and compo-nents from EA economics such as Japan and Korea will expand the bilateral trade deficit significantly,espe-cially in the ICT industry; international fragmentation of production will weaken the influence of exchange rates on bilateral trade balances. Therefore,as long as China keeps the its role in the international fragmen-tation of production,the situation of China’s overall surplus and regional deficit will continue.%为了解释中国近年来对东亚经济体贸易逆差持续地增加的现象，文章在国际生产分割背景下，分别基于总体、国家（地区）和行业视角，对1992—2012年中国与东亚8个经济体间的零部件贸易面板数据进行实证分析。结果表明：中国作为东亚国际生产网络中的枢纽，从日韩等东亚经济体进口零部件会显著扩大中国对东亚经济体的贸易逆差，其中以ICT行业最为典型；生产分割效应弱化了汇率对双边贸易平衡的影响。只要中国在国际生产分割中所扮演的角色不变，中国对外贸易总体顺差和区域性逆差的局面将会持续存在。