Analog simulation of urban construction land supply and demand in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration based on land intensive use

摘要

Urban land intensive use is an important indicator in harmonizing the relationship between land supply and demand.The system dynamics (SD) can be used to construct the feedback loop between urban construction land supply and demand and index variable function.Based on this,this study built a supply and demand system dynamic model of urban construction land for Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration.This model can simulate the change trends of supply and demand of construction land,industrial land,and residential land in 2016-2030 by three scenarios of low,medium,and high intensity modes.The results showed that the scale of construction land of urban agglomeration is expanding,with a rapid increase rate for the urban construction land.The scale and speed of land use based on the three intensity modes existed differences.The large scale and supply of construction land in the low intensity mode caused easily the waste of land resources.In high intensity mode,the scale and supply of construction land were reduced against the healthy development of new-type urbanization.In the medium intensity mode,the scale and supply of land use adapted to the socio-economic development and at the same time reflected the concept of modern urban development.In addition,the results of this study found that the proportion of industrial land in construction land ranged from 15％ to 21％,which increased year by year in the low intensity mode,and decreased slowly and stabilized in medium and high intensity modes.The proportion of residential land in construction land ranged from 27％ to 35％,which decreased in the low and the medium intensity modes,and maintained a high level in the higher intensity mode.This study contributes to provide scientific reference for decision-making optimization of land supply and demand,urban planning,and land supply-side reform.