基于时间序列法的北京市需水量预报

摘要

@@%It is essential to establish the water resources exploitation and utilization planning,which is mainly based on recognizing and forecasting the water consumed structure rationally and scientifically.During the past 30 years (1980-2009),mean annual precipitation and total water resource of Beijing have decreased by 6.89％ and 31.37％ compared with those perennial values,respectively,while total water consumption during the same period reached pinnacle historically.Accordingly,it is of great significance for the harmony between socio-economic development and environmental development.Based on analyzing total water consumption,agricultural,industrial,domestic and environmental water consumption,and evolution of water consumed structure,further driving forces of evolution of total water consumption and water consumed structure are revealed systematically.Prediction and discussion are achieved for evolution of total water consumption,water consumed structure,and supply-demand situation of water resource in the near future of Beijing using Time Series Forecasting Method.The purpose of the endeavor of this paper is to provide scientific basis for the harmonious development between socio-economy and water resources,for the establishment of rational strategic planning of water resources,and for the social sustainable development of Beijing with scientific bases.