中国能源消费碳排放的空间计量分析

摘要

@@%Based on energy consumption data of each region in China from 1997 to 2009 and using ArcGIS9.3 and GeoDA9.5 as technical support,this paper made a preliminary study on the changing trend of spatial pattern at regional level of carbon emissions from energy consumption,spatial autocorrelation analysis of carbon emissions,spatial regression analysis between carbon emissions and their influencing factors.The analyzed results are shown as follows.(1) Carbon emissions from energy consumption increased more than 148％ from 1997 to 2009 but the spatial pattern of high and low emission regions did not change greatly.(2) The global spatial autocorrelation of carbon emissions from energy consumption increased from 1997 to 2009,the spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there exists a "polarization" phenomenon,the centre of "High-High" agglomeration did not change greatly but expanded currently,the centre of "Low-Low" agglomeration also did not change greatly but narrowed currently.(3) The spatial regression analysis showed that carbon emissions from energy consumption has a close relationship with GDP and population,R-squared rate of the spatial regression between carbon emissions and GDP is higher than that between carbon emissions and population.The contribution of population to carbon emissions increased but the contribution of GDP decreased from 1997 to 2009.The carbon emissions spillover effect was aggravated from 1997 to 2009 due to both the increase of GDP and population,so GDP and population were the two main factors which had strengthened the spatial autocorrelation of carbon emissions.