青藏高原边缘区地震灾后的经济韧性及恢复效率——以汶川Ms 8.0地震极重灾区为例

摘要

The border areas of the Tibetan Plateau and the neighboring mountainous areashave a high incidence of earthquakes with a magnitude greater than Ms 5.0, as well as havinga dense distribution of geological disasters such as collapses, landslides, and debris flows.Revealing the post-disaster economic development and recovery process is very importantfor enhancing disaster prevention and response capacity in order to formulate control policiesand recovery methods for post-disaster economic reconstruction based on economic resilience.Using long-term socioeconomic data and the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model, this paper calculated the economic resilience index of the areas mostseverely affected by the Wenchuan Earthquake of 2008 and adopted the improved variablereturns to scale (VRS) date envelopment analysis (DEA) model and the Malmquist productivityindex to analyze the efficiency and effect of annual post-disaster recovery. The resultsshow that: (1) the economic resilience index of the areas most severely affected by theWenchuan Earthquake was 0.877. The earthquake resulted in a short-term economic recessionin the affected areas, but the economy returned to pre-quake levels within two years. Inaddition, the industrial economy was less resilient than agriculture and the service industry. (2)The comprehensive economic recovery efficiency of the disaster-stricken area in the yearfollowing the disaster was 0.603. The comprehensive efficiency, the pure technical efficiency,and the scale efficiency of the plain and hilly areas were significantly greater than those of theplateau and mountain areas. (3) The annual fluctuation in total factor productivity (TFP) followingthe disaster was considerable, and the economic recovery efficiency decreased significantly,resulting in a short-term economic recession. The TFP index returned to steadystate following decreases of 33.7% and 15.2%, respectively, in the two years following thedisaster. (4) The significant decrease in the post-disaster recovery efficiency was causedmainly by technological changes, and the renewal of the production system was the leading factor in determining the economic resilience following the disaster. With the decline in thescale of economic recovery following the earthquake, long-term economic recovery in thedisaster-stricken areas depended mainly on pure technical efficiency, and the improvement inthe latter was the driving force for maintaining the long-term growth of the post-disastereconomy. Therefore, according to the local characteristics of natural environment and economicsystem, the disaster-stricken areas need to actively change and readjust their economicstructures. At the same time, attention should be paid to updating the production systemto enhance the level of technological progress and give full play to the scale effects oflarge-scale capital, new facilities, human resources, and other investment factors followingthe disaster so as to enhance the impact of economic resilience and recovery efficiency inresponse to the disaster.