In order to answer the question of how to position and decide quantitatively the evolution pattern in inner sub-regions which have different environmental conditions and targets of development,a spatial SD model was developed combined with spatial analysis methods,with an analysis of the dynamic role & feedback effects of Chongming Island's "natural-economic-social" composite system by using its remote sensing images and statistical data. Then, it was used to simulate the dynamic model of the system under two development scenarios the "economy-resources coordination"(Ⅰ) and "economic growth"(Ⅱ). And the results showed that the former was 20% higher than the latter,so it was more conducive to the enhancement of the island's overall economic strength.%为解决不同发展理念和资源禀赋差异化分布条件下,同一区域内不同区位差异化发展的定位和定量决策分析问题.运用遥感和统计等数据对上海崇明岛“自然-经济-社会”复合系统的动态作用和反馈作用进行了分析,进而结合空间分析方法构建了基于单元格的系统动力学模型,并设计了“经济增长型”(Ⅰ)和“经济-资源协调型”(Ⅱ)两个发展模型.仿真结果显示,在中远期目标下,“经济-资源协调型”方案可承载的人口高于“经济增长型”方案约20％,更有利于岛屿整体经济实力的增强.
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