技术溢出视角下技术进步对能源消费的回弹效应研究——基于空间面板数据模型

摘要

Based on a neglect of the technology spillover effect in current rebound effect literature, this paper gives a method of calculating the rebound effect by constructing a spatial error model of three-element economic growth, and makes an empirical study of the rebound effect in China based on the provincial panel data from 1995 to 2010. The results show that there are significant rebound effects induced by technology progress in China; the average rebound effects in central and western regions are obviously greater than the one in eastern region; the national average rebound effect experiences an upward trend. As a result, governments need to pay attention to the possible rebound effect induced by the reduction in energy con- sumption per unit of GDP when making energy policies, and should combine the improvement of energy efficiency with measures such as independent innovation, the adjustment in industrial structure and macroeconomic control in order to realize the estabilished target of energy conservation.%针对现有文献测算回弹效应普遍忽略技术溢出效应的缺憾，文章构建了三要素经济增长的空间误差模型，在此基础上给出了回弹效应的估算方法，并利用1995—2010年省际面板数据对我国技术溢出视角下技术进步对能源消费的回弹效应进行了实证分析。结果表明，技术进步所导致的能源回弹效应显著存在，中、西部的平均回弹效应明显高于东部，全国的平均回弹效应呈现上升趋势。因此，政府在制定能源政策时需要注意降低单位GDP能耗可能出现的回弹效应，把提高能源效率与自主创新、产业结构调整、政府宏观调控等手段结合起来以实现既定的节能目标。