大连市环境负荷预测分析

摘要

为探讨区域环境与城镇化、区域环境与工业化之间既相互促进又相互制约的动态关系,应用对比分析法,以参照区的污染物排放强度为衡量标准,构建相对环境负荷指数模型及其综合评价方案,提出了区域环境系统安全状态判断标准.据此针对2000-2012年大连市环境负荷进行实证分析,结合未来中国及大连市国民经济与社会发展规划及有关环境保护规划目标,对2016-2020年及2020-2025年2个时段内研究区环境负荷响应进行预测.结果表明,随着居民生活水平及治污技术水平不断提高,研究区环境负荷阈值整体提高;生活源“三废”排放加剧了区域环境负荷,工业源“三废”排放对区域环境负荷的负面影响相对不明显;人口-环境负荷指数先降后升并有加重趋势,工业-环境负荷指数稳中有降.预计2016年之后研究区环境系统仍将处于相对安全的蓝色预警状态,但系统负荷下降趋势逐步放缓,因此有必要及时、合理地掌控城市化发展速度.%To study the dynamic mutually-promoting and restraining relationships of regional environment with urbanization and industrialization,a regional relative environmental load index model with the pollutant discharge intensity in the reference area set as reference point was built up,using the comparative analysis method,a comprehensive evaluation program formulated,and criteria for judging whether or not a regional environment was safe proposed.Based on empirical analysis of the environmental load of Dalian during 2000-2012,prediction was made of responses of the environmental load in Dalian and China in 2025,by taking into account the national economic and social development programs and the goals of related environmental protection programs of the country and the city.Results show that with the living standard of the residents and the pollution controlling technical level growing steadily,the threshold of environmental load in Dalian on the whole ascended;the discharge of the three types of domestic waste aggravated the regional environmental load,and the discharge of the three types of industrial waste did not show much negative influence on the regional environmental load;the population-environment load index declined first and then turned back upwards,exhibiting an aggravating trend,while the industry-environment load index remained quite stable with a slight decline.It is predicted that the environment system in the region will remain in the blue alert state or at a relatively safe level after 2016,while the system load will decline at a gradually slower rate.Therefore,it's necessary to control the speed of urbanization timely and reasonably.