空中交通管制系统安全风险评估

摘要

The safety risk assessment of air traffic management system relies heavily on empirical data given by experts, the uncertainty of the data will reduce the reliability of the assessment resuIts.This paper assesses the severity of dangerous consequences through the fuzzy evaluation theory with full consideration of operation characteristics of ATM system.Combining the expert questionnaire and using the uncertainty distribution estimate of the Uncertain Theory,the paper estimates the possibility of dangerous occurrence,make the uncertainty data to be certainty,then gives an evaluate examples.The method can collect and process data better,it is efficiency and offers a good reference to more scientific safety evaluation for air traffic management system.%空管系统的安全风险评估在很大程度上依赖于专家给出的经验数据,这类数据的不确定性会降低评估结果的可靠性.结合空管运行的实际情况,利用模糊评价理论对危险发生后果的严重程度进行评估,在专家问卷的基础上利用不确定理论中的不确定分布估计对危险发生的可能性进行估算,变不确定数据为确定,并结合实例进行了实例计算.该方法能够较好地收集和处理数据,可操作性和实用性强,对更加合理地评价空中交通管理系统安全状态具有参考价值.