基于城市流模型的城市群扩张模拟——以武汉城市圈为例

摘要

With the continuous development of regional urbanization,urban expansion has become a highly concerned research subject in China's urbanization process.The expansion of the urban agglomeration simulation has become a hot research issue.In the previous simulation of urban expansion,CA (cellular automaton,cellular automata) model has come to be a widely approved method with its unique advantages of simple rule and strong extensibility in simulating urban expansion.Currently the CA model is mainly used in the simulation of a single city,yet not able to get a satisfied simulation precision in a large-scale region.In this paper,we introduced the "urban flow" model into the traditional city CA model,and the space interaction is quantified and embedded in the transformation rules of CA model.This model was applied to simulate the expansion of Wuhan urban agglomeration.The results showed that our model has a higher precision compared with the traditional Logistic-CA model,which ignores the internal space forces of the urban agglomeration to urban expansion.At the same time,the urban expansion situation of Wuhan urban agglomeration in 2020 was predicted,studies have shown that the future urban expansion would focus on the edge of the central city zone.%随着区域城市化和城市区域化的不断发展,城市群扩张已成为中国城市化进程研究中备受关注的课题,城市群的扩张模拟也成为一个热点研究问题.在传统的城市扩张模拟中,CA(cellular automaton,元胞自动机)模型以其独特的规则简单,可扩展性强等优点,在城市扩张模拟方法中逐渐占据主导地位,但目前CA模型主要应用于对单一城市的扩张模拟,对大范围区域内城市群的综合扩张模拟精度不高.该文引入了城市流模型对传统CA模型加以改进,将空间相互作用力量化并嵌入CA模型的转换规则中,并以武汉城市圈为例,应用改进模型模拟了武汉城市圈的扩张变化.结果显示,相比传统的Logistic-CA模型,该文提出的模型精度更高,说明城市群内部空间作用力对城市群扩张影响显著,同时,预测了武汉城市圈2020年的城市扩张情况.研究表明,未来城市扩张将集中在中心城市边缘地带.