国际移民汇款的经济增长效应--基于发展中国家的系统 GMM分析

摘要

In recent years,the scale of international immigrant remittance continues to expand.Remittances to developing countries gradually become an important source of foreign exchange besides FDI and foreign aid.Remit-tance is becoming more and more influential on domestic economic growth.Based on the related research literature, the authors summarizes five main economic effects of remittances:investment multiplier effect,investment incentive effect,inhibitory effects of trade,TFP promoting effect and human capital accumulation effect.The economic effects of remittance to developing countries are the comprehensive effect of the five main effect results.This paper uses method of system-GMMdynamic panel regression,chooses 49 developing countries for empirical analysis,the results show that the influence of remittances on economic growth in developing countries has a lag effect,the initial effect of remittances is negative,the lagged effect of a period is positive.The regional empirical results also prove that the economic effects of remittances are different in different regions.%近几年，随着国际移民汇款规模的不断扩大，移民汇款逐渐成为发展中国家继 FDI 和外来援助后的重要外汇来源，移民汇款对国内经济增长产生的影响也越来越大。通过对相关研究文献的梳理，总结出移民汇款影响经济增长的五个主要效应：乘数效应、投资激励效应、贸易抑制效应、技术进步提升效应和人力资本积累效应，这五种效应最终会通过影响人力资本和技术进步水平而影响发展中国家国内的经济增长，而移民汇款对发展中国家的经济增长效应是五个主要效应综合影响的结果。通过运用系统 GMM动态面板回归的方法，对选取的49个发展中国家进行了实证分析，结果显示，移民汇款对发展中国家的经济增长影响存在滞后效应，并且移民汇款的初始效应为负，滞后一期的效应为正；区域实证的结果表明，移民汇款的经济效应在不同区域存在着差异，亚洲和拉丁美洲区域的实证结果与整体一致，非洲地区移民汇款滞后变量对经济增长的影响为负。