2003—2014年，国家实施多项大力扶持东北老工业基地的振兴政策，东北经济在保持了较好增长态势的同时，人口却大量外流。深刻理解经济发展中的人口外流现象，有助于制定合理的政策缓解人口外流趋势，并利用人口变化与经济发展之间的关系有效促进经济持续增长。基于统计数据的分析，特别是基于黑龙江省县域面板数据的系统GMM分析，得出结论认为：东北重工业化的产业发展策略和行政主导的城镇化模式是导致人口外流的重要原因，其后果是工业化和城镇化的虚高，进而使得就业增长不足，城镇化推进缓慢。因而，工业化和城镇化的变革、配套措施的跟进和市场化进程的加快是缓解东北人口外流的重要举措。%Until 2014 , the economy in northeast China has been growing steadily since the central government took measures to promote the old industrial base of northeast China. Meanwhile, lots of people moved out of there, especially the urban residents. Understanding this paradox is a key to take measures to curb the emigration trend in the northeast China, as well as to promote the regional economic growth using the relationship between the population change and the economic growth. Analysis on the statistic data, especially on SYS GMM regression of county panel data of Heilongjiang province, we concluded that the industrial strategy of the heavy industrialization and urbanization with administrative intervene is the important factors that led to the emigration of the northeast China. Double pseudo high levels of the industrialization and urbanization made the employment grow slowly. Without the sufficient employment, the emigration is inevitable. Thus, the great change on the industrialization and urbanization, along with the corresponding measures as well as deepening of marketization is the important way of changing the emigration in northeast China.
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