人民币汇率波动与中国经济增长——基于状态空间模型和中介效应检验的经验研究

摘要

Based on China's time series data from January 1995 to June 2014, the paper applies the state space model and the mediation effect testing methods to analyze the relationship between the RMB real effective exchange rate and economic growth and internal mechanism.The empirical analysis shows that the real effective exchange rate's influence of RMB on China's economic growth depends on the actual mediation effect of exports.The paper also finds that the RMB effective exchange rate depreciation has a significant positive effect on both actual exports and economic growth.The paper offers references for decision-making departments of the Chinese government when they formulate policies.%利用1995年1月-2014年6月的时间序列数据,运用状态空间模型和中介效应检验方法,分析了人民币实际有效汇率与经济增长之间的关系及内部作用机制.实证研究表明,人民币实际有效汇率对中国经济增长的影响依靠实际出口额的中介效应实现.此外,研究还发现人民币实际汇率贬值对实际出口额有显著的正向影响,人民币实际汇率贬值对经济增长有显著的正向影响,从而为政府决策部门制定政策提供了参考.