新常态下交通对中国经济质量增长的贡献

摘要

根据交通外部性和非线性理论构建交通门槛模型，并基于1985-2012年中国省际面板数据，采用Hansen门槛效应的内生分组方法检验新常态下交通对中国经济增长质量的贡献。结果显示：新常态下交通对经济增长质量贡献略低于"旧常态"，但仍表现出区间"递增"趋势；把新常态下TFP分解为技术进步和技术效率，发现中密度地区要素配置结构已不适应技术进步的需要，高密度地区技术效率相对技术进步对经济增长质量的贡献较低；随着区间交通密度的增加，"政府干预经济"更有效率，但城市化和产业发展对经济增长质量贡献由正转负。为进一步提升新常态下交通对中国经济增长质量的贡献，应定向适度加大"中密度地区"交通投资力度，助其跳出"低增长陷阱"；借助信息化、智能化手段引领交通建设转型升级以提高经济运行效率；构建"交通-产业-城镇"三位一体的协同新型综合交通体系；协调好城市化与交通基础设施建设之间的关系。%Based on the traffic externalities and nonlinear theory,this paper constructs a traffic thresh-old model,and inspects the traffic's contribution to the economic growth quality of China by analyzing the provincial panel data from 1985 to 2012 with the method of endogenous grouping of Hansen threshold effect.The results reveal a meaningful findings.First,the traffic's contribution to the eco-nomic growth quality under the New Normal is slightly lower than the Old Normal,but there are still trends of interval increases.Second,under the New Normal,TFP is decomposed into technical pro-gress and technical efficiency.It is found that the factor's allocation structure in the medium density areas can't meet the requirement of the technological progress,and the contribution of the technical ef-ficiency to economic growth quality in the high density areas is relatively lower than that of the techni-cal progress.Third,with the increase of traffic density,the government intervention into the economy becomes more efficient,but the contribution of the urbanization and the industrial development to the economic growth quality turns from positive to negative.In order to strengthen the traffic's contribu-tion to the economic growth quality under the New Normal,it is proposed that directed transportation investments in the medium density areas should be enlarged to pull these areas out of the"low growth"trap.Fourth,the transportation construction should be upgraded via informatization and in-telligentization to improve the efficiency of the economic operation.Fifth,a new coordinated transpor-tation system of"traffic-industry-town"should be built.Last,the relationship between the urbaniza-tion and the transportation infrastructure construction should be coordinated.