秦皇岛港煤炭供应链牛鞭效应形成因素分析

摘要

以秦皇岛港煤炭供应链为研究对象，分析在我国现行煤炭供需市场和运输环境的大背景下，牛鞭效应对煤炭供应链的影响。结果表明：牛鞭效应造成供应链中节点企业煤炭滞压严重；供应链物流成本增加；市场中煤炭价格大幅度波动；煤炭企业生产异常；供应链中出现资源的闲置和浪费。进一步分析秦皇岛港煤炭供应链的运行，得到牛鞭效应形成的主要成因是：交货方式的缺陷、煤炭订购策略的影响、企业间竞争的博弈、运输条件的影响以及供应链信息沟通不畅。%By analyzing the current coal supply-and-demand market and transportation environment of Qinhuangdao port,this paper intends to investigate the bullwhip effect in the coal supply chain in Chi-na.The results show that the bullwhip effect in the supply chain causes coal overstock,logistics cost increase,coal price swing,coal production abnormality,and resources waste.This paper summarizes the main causes of the bullwhip effect in the coal supply chain of Qinhuangdao port.It is found that the bullwhip effect is mainly formed due to the defect of the delivery ways,coal order strategy,game and competition between the companies,coal transportation condition,and failure in information communication.