一种高精度弹道导弹落点预测方法

摘要

To accurately predicate impact point for ballistic missile,a prediction algorithm of impact point was proposed.In the algorithm,the range of impact point was roughly estimated to search the possible target based on elliptic trajectory,and then genetic algorithm was used to predict the impact point precisely based on 4D external trajectory model.By this algorithm,the target search range can be rapidly delimited,and the ballistic missile trajectory can be accurately generated.The hypothesis that the missile must attack our military targets overcomes the limitation that the current algorithms rely on ballistic characteristics,and it supports impact point prediction of multi-warhead ballistic missile.The simulation experiments show that the running time of the algorithm is in 2 s or less,and the error is within 100 m;the demand of precision and time can be satisfied.The impact points of multi-warhead can be simultaneously predicted by this algorithm.%为高精度预测弹道导弹落点,提出了高精度落点预测算法,即首先基于椭圆弹道粗估计所划定的落点范围搜索可能目标,然后基于4D外弹道模型应用遗传算法对弹道导弹弹道进行精细预测.该算法可快速划定目标搜索范围并精确生成弹道导弹轨迹;以导弹必定攻击我方军事目标的基本假定改变了以往算法仅依靠弹道特性的局限,并支持多弹头弹道导弹的落点预测.仿真实验表明该算法的运行时间平均在2s以内,精度在100m范围,可以满足弹道导弹预警的时间和精度要求,也可为多弹头同时预测落点.