GRAPES 全球三维变分同化业务系统性能

摘要

近年来，GRAPES 全球三维变分同化系统分析性能和稳定性有了长足进步。该文简要介绍了近两年 GRAPES 全球三维变分同化技术的发展与改进情况，包括同化框架技术、资料同化应用技术与系统稳定性等方面。分析诊断了两年的同化循环试验结果，以探空资料作为参考，对 ERA-Interim 再分析场、NCEP FNL 分析场和 GRAPES 全球三维变分分析场的统计特征进行了比较；以 ERA-Interim 再分析场作为参考，对 NCEP FNL 分析场、T639分析场和 GRAPES 全球三维变分分析场进行比较。结果表明：GRAPES 分析场的质量明显优于 T639分析场，性能上达到了业务化的要求，但相比 NCEP FNL 分析场还有一定差距，特别是对流层内湿度分析场的误差还比较大。%In recent years,the capability and stability of GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System)three-dimensional variation data assimilation system (3DVar)is upgraded and improved gradually in Numerical Weather Prediction Center of China Meteorological Administration.Improvements in analysis scheme and assimilating data technique for GRAPES 3DVar in the past two years are overviewed.Then the capability and performance of G-M3DVar latest version are evaluated by two-year length experiments.The accuracy and precision of G-M3DVar analyses is evaluated against radiosonde observation and ERA-Interim reanalysis and is compared with NCEP FNL and T639 analysis. Taken radiosonde data as a reference,the root mean square error and bias of pressure analyses of G-M3DVar are smaller than ERA-Interim reanalysis and NCEP FNL analysis data in all domains in both win-ter and summer seasons.The root mean square error and bias of u wind analysis of G-M3DVar are larger than ERA-Interim reanalysis and NCEP FNL analysis in the Tropics.However,in the Northern Hemi-sphere,the root mean square error and bias of u wind of G-M3DVar are similar to ERA-Interim below 250 hPa.In the Southern Hemisphere,the root mean squared error of u wind of G-M3DVar is the largest com-pared to EAR-Interim reanalysis and NCEP FNL analysis.For humidity field,the bias of G-M3DVar anal-ysis is smaller than EAR-Interim reanalysis and NCEP FNL analysis in the middle and high troposphere, which means that the humidity analysis of G-M3DVar is much drier than ERA-Interim and NCEP FNL da-ta especially in the middle and high troposphere.Taken ERA-Interim reanalysis data as a reference,the root mean square error of G-M3DVar analysis is smaller than the T639 analysis but larger than NCEP FNL analysis data for all fields excluded the humidity.In conclusion,the quality of G-M3DVar analysis is better than T639 analysis and satisfies requirements of operational run. In recent years,the gap of analyses between G-M3DVar and advanced numerical weather centers such as ECMWF keeps growing,although the accuracy of G-M3DVar analysis is improved significantly in the past two years.Much more focus and works should be paid in the following aspects.First,the background error covariance (BE)is estimated by National Meteorological Center of USA (NMC)method,which is static and climatological.The static and climatological BE is far from meeting requirements of the modern numerical weather prediction.Second,the quality control scheme for all observations in G-M3DVar is still relatively inexactly and incapable.Third,the bias correction scheme for microwave radiance in G-M3DVar is still static which has been proved to have some shortcomings.