制度变迁、路径依赖与王朝周期性兴衰——以中国封建王朝制度变迁为例

摘要

Path dependence is an important theory of institutional change in the new institutional economics. The institutional change of the feudal dynasties in China have a distinct path dependence,which is closely related to the cyclical rise and fall of the dynasty.In the process of path dependence,learning effect,syner-gistic effect and locking effect play an important role.The ideology of the feudal dynasties in China shows co-hesion and rigidity,and it forms the path dependence in the institutional change through the learning effect. The political process in which interest groups are involved has high transaction costs and conspiracy charac-teristics,and the institutional equilibrium is locked in an inefficient state through synergies.The rulers' bounded rationality influences and determines its expectation and behavior in the system game,through the locking effect of the institutional changes in trouble.Under the influence of the path dependence,the institu-tional change of the feudal dynasties is the gradual repair process under the existing system,and constantly to the institutional rigidity,eventually leading to the dynasty ownership change.%路径依赖理论是新制度经济学分析制度变迁的重要理论.中国封建王朝的制度变迁具有鲜明的路径依赖性,这种特性与王朝的周期性兴衰息息相关.在路径依赖的形成过程中,学习效应、协同效应和锁定效应发挥着重要作用.中国封建王朝的意识形态表现出凝聚性和刚性特征,通过学习效应在制度变迁中形成路径依赖;利益集团参与的政治过程具有高昂的交易成本和合谋特征,通过协同效应将制度均衡锁定在非效率的状态;统治者的有限理性影响并决定了其在制度博弈中的预期和行为方式,通过锁定效应使制度变迁陷入困境.在路径依赖的作用下,封建王朝的制度变迁是在既有制度之下的渐进式修补过程,并不断走向制度僵化,最终导致王朝的更迭.