新疆棉花低温冷害动态监测研究

摘要

[目的]实现新疆棉花冷害大范围动态实时监测, 为棉花冷害减灾防灾提供技术支持.[方法]基于星地多源数据, 将棉花动态发育期信息、反演的逐日平均气温、棉花冷害监测指标多要素相结合, 对2000—2016年新疆棉花播种至五叶期、花铃期冷害动态进行监测.[结果]2003年、2010年、2014年春季, 2003年和2009年夏秋季棉花冷害结果与《中国气象年鉴》灾害统计报道的冷害发生时间和位置相符合, 与气象站点计算的逐日距平平均值统计规律能够相互印证.所获的逐日平均气温经验证, 5个重点监测时段的模拟气温结果与气象站观测结果RMSE分别为1.92、1.96、1.94、1.80、1.86℃, 所获日气温模拟精度基本满足冷害监测需求.[结论]该研究建立的冷害监测方法可以实现对新疆棉花大面积低温冷害的同步实时跟踪监测.%[Objective]To realize the large-scale dynamic real-time monitoring of cotton cold damage in Xinjiang and to provide technical support for the disaster reduction and prevention of cotton cold damage.[Method]Based on multi-source data and combined the cotton dynamic development phase information, the daily mean temperature of inversion and cotton cold damage monitoring indicators, this paper completed the dynamic monitoring of cotton cold damage from sowing to five-leaf and flower boll phase in Xinjiang during 2000-2016.[Result]The monitored results of cotton cold damage in spring of 2003, 2010 and 2014 and summer and fall season of 2003 and 2009 were consistent with the time and location reported in China statistical yearbook of meteorological disasters, can mutually confirm with the statistical rule of daily anomaly average value calculated by the meteorological station. Estimated temperature by multiple regression equations was validated, the RMSE between the simulation and observation temperature were 1.92, 1.96, 1.94, 1.80 and 1.86 ℃ in five key monitoring time stages, respectively. The obtained simulation accuracy of daily mean temperature basically met the monitoring requirements for cold damage.[Conclusion]The method of cold damage monitoring established in this paper can realize synchronous and real-time monitoring of large-scale cotton cold damage in Xinjiang.