模糊层次分析法在水利工程风险中的综合应用与研究

摘要

大型水利工程项目在建设过程中蕴藏着许多不确定因素,根据大型水利工程项目风险的自身的特殊性,分析影响水利工程建设中的因素,结合因素特点建立了基于多层次模糊综合评判项目的风险评价模型.通过分析工程项目风险因素发生的概率进行综合评估,确定风险因素影响的重要程度,并制定与之相应的科学的管理方案与控制措施,为水利工程项目的建设提供了参考；解决了大型水利工程项目的风险分析评价量化问题,并以实例模型说明这种评估方法在工程项目风险分析评价中的可行性.%Large-scale water conservancy project bears many uncertainties in the construction process, combined with the characteristics of the water conservancy project risk, the factors that affect water conservancy construction were analyzed, a risk assessment model was established based on the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Through analyzing the probability of risk factors, the role of influencing factors were obtained and corresponding scientific management scheme and control measures were made, which will provide reference for water conservancy project construction. The risk evaluation quantification problem was resolved and the feasibility of the evaluation method was elaborated with cases.