现代物流与新型城镇化协调性评价--基于辽宁1985-2012年数据的实证研究

摘要

Urbanization is one of the most important social phenomenons and economic phenomenons in the world,which contains social and economic life.As a new engine of economic growth in the future of China,the new urbanization has become helpful to the expansion of domestic demand and to promoting coordinated regional development.Modern logistics industry is composite as the integration of transporta-tion,warehousing and other industries,and it is a measure of industrial structure optimization.Modern logistics and new urbanization are important parts of economic and social development,they may restraint and promote each other,while development of urbanization may enhance the logistics industry,the devel-opment of urbanization also need a strong support of logistics system,the coordination between the two di-rectly affects their role in promoting economic development.By using fuzzy math concept of membership functions,factor analysis method and STATA statistical analysis software,to build a comprehensive eval-uation index system of modern logistics and new urbanization,to establish the evaluation model of the co-ordination between the new urbanization and modern logistics,and based on the data of Liaoning in 1985—2012,we can have a comprehensive evaluation and give appropriate policy recommendations.%城镇化是当今世界上最重要的社会现象、经济现象之一，包含着社会、经济生活等诸多内容，作为未来我国经济增长新的引擎，推进新型城镇化成为扩大内需和促进区域协调发展的有力抓手。现代物流业是融合了运输、仓储等行业的复合型产业，其发展状况也是衡量产业结构优化与否的重要标志。现代物流与新型城镇化都是经济社会发展的重要组成部分，二者相互制约、相互促进，城镇化的发展提升了物流业水平，城镇化的发展也需要物流系统的有力支撑，两者的协调性直接影响到各自对经济发展促进作用的发挥。通过利用模糊数学中隶属度函数的概念、因子分析方法和 STATA 统计分析软件，构建现代物流与新型城镇化水平综合评价指标体系，建立现代物流与新型城镇化之间协调度的评价模型，结合1985—2012年辽宁物流及城镇化发展数据，进而对两者间的协调性进行综合评价，并给予相应的政策建议。