我国对外直接投资增长的影响因素研究——基于因子分析模型

摘要

China＇ s foreign direct investment has witnessed an increase from 900 million dollars in 1990 to 5.9 billion dollars in 2010. Meanwhile, the stock part of foreign direct investment has been more than 300 billion dollars. The growth is so fast, making it rare in the world. Under the situation of complicat- ed world economy, sharp increase of uncertainties in the external economic envi- ronment and as much as 3 trillion dollars of China＇ s foreign exchange reserve, to study the impact factors on the growth of China＇ s foreign direct investment is extremely meaningful to help maintain the healthy growth of foreign direct in- vestment. Using factor analysis model to study the growth factors of China＇ s foreign direct investment can draw the following conclusions： the main growth factors of China＇ s foreign direct investment, ranked according to their degree of influence, includes the supply factors, demand factors, externalizing factors and world factors. The main measures of increasing China＇ s foreign direct invest- ment is to maintain its economic growth, foster multinational companies and tal- ents that with international competiveness, enhance economic and trade exchanges with the global market and grasp the opportunity brought by this global financial crisis.%我国对外直接投资额由1990年的9亿美元快速上升至2010年的590亿美元左右，而对外直接投资的存量部分已超过3000亿美元，增长速度之快在全球范围内都不多见。在世界经济形势错综复杂，各种不确定因素急剧增多的外部经济环境和我国外汇储备高达3万多亿美元的背景下，研究我国对外直接投资增长的影响因素从而保持对外直接投资的健康增长是极有意义的。采用因子分析模型对影响我国对外直接投资的因素进行研究得出以下结论：影响我国对外直接投资的主要因子按其影响程度大小排列分别为供给因子、需求因子、外向因子和世界因子，并认为保持自身经济的增长，培育具有国际竞争力的跨国公司和人才、加大与全球市场的经贸往来、抓住这次全球金融危机带来的机遇是使我国对外直接投资继续增加的主要措施。