国际大宗商品价格与中国经济波动：基于不同来源油价冲击的经验考察

摘要

This paper examines the relation between the CRB index and PPI/ CPI, and estimates the dynamic impact of crude oil price fluctuations on the Chinese economy through SVAR model based on sample data of the year 1992-2009. The results show that fluctuations in international commodity prices have a significant impact on the PP1, which in the conduction process is being further amplified, while have relatively weak impact on the CPI. Oil price volatility from oil supply shocks, China＇ s demand shocks and preventive demand shocks affect China＇ s economic fluctuations significantly, and the role of different shocks have different characteristics.%本文检验了CRB指数与中国PPI／CPI的时间变动趋势及二者传导关系，并以1992-2009年的数据为样本，通过SVAR模型分析原油市场不同来源冲击对中国经济波动的动态影响。结果显示，国际大宗商品价格波动对PPI具有显著影响，且该作用在传导过程中被进一步放大；对CPI的影响相对较弱。石油供给冲击、中国经济需求冲击和预防性需求冲击导致的油价波动对中国经济波动的影响显著，而不同来源油价冲击的作用特征有所不同。