中国农业能耗碳排放脱钩的影响因素解析

摘要

在“机械化＋化学化＝农业现代化”的发展模式下，中国农业能耗碳排放的快速上升，不能简单理解为只是化石能源消费增长的结果，而是人口增长、经济发展、能源结构、能源效率等方面因素的共同作用所导致。发展低碳农业首先要从影响农业能耗碳排放“脱钩与否”的因素入手，厘清各因素在其中的作用。基于Tapio脱钩模型和Kaya恒等式，运用LMDI分解法构建了扩展的Tapio脱钩指数分解模型，对1980－2012年中国农业能耗碳排放的脱钩情况进行定量分析。结果表明，过去30多年来，中国农业能耗碳排放与农业经济增长总体呈现出由“弱脱钩”向“增长连接”转移的趋势，二者之间脱钩状态的稳定性在变差；能源强度降低是实现中国农业能耗碳排放脱钩的关键性因素，但近年来已显现出瓶颈；与此同时，能源结构和产出规模因素对碳排放脱钩的反向抑制作用在不断加强；人口规模虽然对碳排放脱钩工作也起到负面作用，但近年来影响趋于下降。%With the development of modern agriculture , the carbon emissions by energy consumption have been becoming the primary source of agricultural carbon emissions in China .Based on Tapio decoupling model and Kaya identities , using LMDI method , the article builds an extended Tapio decoupling model .Then utilizing time series data of Chinese agricultural energy carbon emissions and gross output value of agriculture in 1980-2012 , we make a quantitative analysis of the decoupling relationship between the above two .The re-sults show that the decoupling status of carbon emissions from energy consumption witnessing a transformation from weak decoupling to growth links , and the stability of the decoupling relationship is reduced , too.De-crease of energy intensity is the key factor leading to decoupling of carbon emission , but bottlenecks are alread-y appearing;the expansion of economic scale and the adjustment of energy structure have a negative effect on the decoupling , and the effect strengthened gradually;while the variance of population which also has a nega-tive contributions to the decoupling , but the influence was limited .