中美国际竞争力的结构变迁效应

摘要

By means of the IMD international competitiveness database and the competitive structure dy-namic analysis , it is found that China has a net increase in international competitive advantage , a net decrease of competitive disadvantage , while the USA , by contrast , a net decrease of competitive advantage and a net in-crease of competitive disadvantage from 1995 to 2015 .The change of this status is due to five effects including global competition , imitation convergence , development transformation , technological revolution and the crisis shock.Represented by the competition of China and USA , the competition between the emerging and devel-oped countries will promote the global dualization which exist in three aspects such as the global governance , the global economic cycle , and national economy transformation .%世界竞争格局正步入一种以美国为主导的发达经济体与新兴经济体的对弈，其间的结构变迁效应需给予特别的关注与重视。运用竞争力结构动态分析工具，对IMD国际竞争力数据库中342个指标进行系统分析，得出中国和美国近20年来国际竞争力的结构性变化情况。结果显示：1995年以来，中国国际竞争优势净增加，竞争劣势净减少，而美国则恰恰相反。中美国际竞争优劣势对比变化主要源于全球化竞争、模仿趋同、发展转型、科技革命、危机冲击等五种效应。在这五大效应的持续作用下，以中美竞争为代表的新兴经济体和发达经济体的竞争将推动全球治理、全球经济循环、国家经济模式变革等方面的二元化。