新常态下经济增速放缓对制造业盈利能力影响——基于FAVAR模型的实证

摘要

随着中国经济步入新常态,宏观经济增速明显放缓,其对制造业内部各行业产生了不同程度和不同时效的影响.运用FAVAR模型评估新常态形势下经济增速放缓冲击对中国制造业各细分行业销售利润率的动态影响,并在此基础上探讨制造业结构变迁的方向.结果表明:经济增速放缓冲击主要通过货币政策传导渠道来影响制造业各细分行业盈利能力,不同要素密集度行业对于冲击的反应不同.资本密集型行业反应最为敏感,其次为技术密集型行业和劳动力密集型行业.此外,经济增长压力加大了汇率波动幅度,对外向型行业造成了较大影响.以中低技术和低技术密集度制造业为主的资本密集型行业和劳动力密集型行业表现出较弱的抗风险能力和盈利能力,而以高技术和中高技术密集度制造业为主的技术密集型行业则整体表现出较好的抗风险能力和盈利能力,这将影响各类生产要素和资源在行业间的配置.可以看到,在市场机制中利润法则的主导下,制造业将逐步向抗风险能力强和盈利能力强的行业变迁,中国政府既要遵循利润法则主导下的制造业结构变迁方向,同时也要按照"中国制造2025"的发展要求,积极发挥辅助功能,加快制造业结构调整进程.%As China`s economy enters into the new normal era,the growth of macro economy is slowing.And this phenomenon impacts the 25 sectors of manufacturing to a different extent at different time.This paper evaluates the dynamic impact of the macroeconomic slowdown on profit margin of 25 sectors of manufacturing in the new normal era,using the factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model.Further,the direction of the change of manufacturing structure is discussed.The results show that the impact of the economic slowdown has been mainly through monetary policy transmission channels to influence the profitability of manufacturing sectors.And the sectors with varying factor intensity respond differently to the economic slowdown.Specifically,capital-intensive industries are the most sensitive,followed by technology-intensive industries and labor-intensive industries.In addition,the economic growth pressure has increased the volatility of the exchange rate,which has had a significant impact on the export-oriented industries.The capital-intensive industries and labor-intensive industries which mainly include most sectors of the middle low technology-intensive manufacturing and low technology-intensive manufacturing show weaker anti-risk ability and profitability.However,the technology-intensive industries which mainly include most sectors of the high technology-intensive manufacturing and middle high technology-intensive manufacturing show stronger anti-risk ability and profitability.This will affect the distribution of various production factors and resources between industries.It shows that manufacturing sectors will gradually move toward to the sectors with stronger anti-risk ability and profitability under the laws of profit in the market.The Chinese government should not only follow the direction of structure change,but also actively play auxiliary function to speed up the process of manufacturing structure adjustment according to the requirements of "China manufacturing 2025".