基于社会网络分析法的中国典型城市入境旅游经济增长空间关联性分析

摘要

收集1995-2015年有关数据,利用格兰杰因果关系检验、社会网络分析法,分析中国典型城市入境旅游经济增长的空间关联性,并使用QAP相关分析和回归分析分析方法,揭示影响入境旅游经济增长空间关联的影响因素,结果发现:①城市入境旅游经济增长空间关联网络的关联度较高,结构均匀,但网络整体紧密度不够,网络存在多重叠加的溢出效应,网络稳健性较强.入境旅游经济增长空间关联网络的内向中心势大于外向中心势,受益关系多于溢出关系,但总体的联系较为分散.②广州、杭州、珠海、温州、太原、三亚等城市,与其他城市空间联系程度最高,网络最为稳健;上海、武汉、沈阳、南京、大连、天津等城市,在整体关联网络中联系较多,中介作用较大.③城市入境旅游经济增长空间关联网络结构可分为四个板块,第三板块内部入境旅游经济关系较为活跃,将入境旅游经济增长的动能沿第四板块和第一板块传递给第二板块,同时第二板块又将动能反馈给第一板块.④入境旅游人数关联、旅游资源丰度、经济发展关联、交通便捷度是影响入境旅游经济增长空间关联的重要影响因素.%This paper collects the data from 1995 to 2015 to analyze the spatial correlation of economic growth of inbound tourism in China' s typical cities by using the method of Granger causality test and analytic network process.Then,we reveal its influencing factors based on QAP correlation and QAP regression.The results show that:①Spatial correlation of city' s inbound tourism of economical development is highly connected and has a uniform structure,but the whole network is not closely enough.There are multiple overlay spillover effects in the network and network robustness is strong.The inward centrality of inbound tourism economic growth spatial correlation network is greater than that of the outward central potential and the beneficial relationship is more than the spillover relationship,but the overall relationship is more dispersed.②Guangzhou,Hangzhou,Zhuhai,Wenzhou,Taiyuau,Sanya and other cities,the individual network density is high.The highest degree of contact with other city space network,the most robust.Shanghai,Wuhan,Shenyang,Nanjing,Dalian,Tianjin and other cities,more contacts in the overall network,intermediary effects is relatively large,and transmission is stronger.(③)Inbound tourism of economic growth on spatial correlation network structure can be divided into four plates.The third plate internal entry tourism economy is relatively active,while the kinetic energy transfer of inbound tourism of economic growth to the fourth plates.We find fourth plates will transfer the kinetic energy of inbound tourism of economic growth to the first plate,the first plate and the kinetic energy transfers to the second plates,and second plates and at the same time will pass the first energy sector.④Causal correlation of the number of inbound tourist arrivals,tourism resource abundance,traffic accessibility,and similar development of gross domestic product are important influencing factors of economic growth of inbound tourism economic growth spatial correlation.