贵州省农村剩余劳动力数量及转移趋势

摘要

The rational quantity of surplus rural labor force was calculated by the mean value of four methods of urbanization estimation,industrial structure deviation,cultivated land labor ratio and employment structure deviation to overcome the disadvantages of the estimated value deviated from the actual value in Guizhou during 2000-2011.The results from the empirical analysis on surplus rural labor force quantity,transfered labor force quantity and the labor force existence quantity variation trend showed that total surplus rural labor force quantity was increasing but the existence quantity presented the declining trend gradually.The surplus rural labor force transfer in the Eleventh Five-year Plan period presented the accelerating trend compared with in the Tenth Five-year Plan period.The existence quantity of surplus rural labor force began to be less than the transfer quantity of surplus rural labor force from the Eleventh Five Plan in Guizhou.%运用4种方法(城市化估计法、产业结构偏离度法、耕地劳动力比例法和就业结构偏离度法)的均值对贵州省农村剩余劳动力数量进行测算,试图克服估算值偏离实际值较大的弊端,得出趋于合理的贵州省农村剩余劳动力数量.通过对2000-2011年贵州省农村剩余劳动力数量、已转移数量和存量变化趋势的实证分析,得出结论:贵州省农村剩余劳动力总量在增加,但是其存量呈逐渐减少趋势；“十一五”期间相对于“十五”期间,农村剩余劳动力的转移呈加速趋势；自“十一五”起,贵州省农村剩余劳动力存量与转移数量开始出现绝对量的转换,即农村剩余劳动力存量开始小于转移数量.