1960-2012年云南省年际气温与降水量的区域性变化特征

摘要

The climatic variation characteristics of different regions in Yunnan is analyzed by linear tendency estimate and moving average methods from season and interannual scales based on the actually measured data from 30 meteorological stations in Yunnan from 1960 to 2012 to understand the impact of climatic change and put forword adaptive countermeasures.Results: The annual average temperature in Yunnan presents an obvious rising trend from 1960 to 2012 and the linear rising rate reaches 0.21℃/10a.The sudden change occurred in 1997.Temperature rise is most obviously in Winter and the regions with higher temperature rise range are West Yunnan and Southwest Yunnan.The linear reduction rate of annual average precipitation is 9.8 mm/10a and the precipitation reduction rate in Summer and Autumn is more.The reduction trend of annual average precipitation in Northeast Yunnan and Southeast Yunnan is more obvious.%为了解气候变化带来的影响并提出适应性对策措施,基于云南省1960-2012年30个气象站点的实测资料,运用线性倾向估计、滑动平均等方法,从季节、年际2个尺度上分析云南省不同区域的气候变化特征.结果表明:云南省1960-2012年的年平均气温呈明显上升态势,线性上升率达0.21℃/10a,1997年为突变点;云南省冬季升温最为明显,升温幅度较大区域为滇西和滇西南.云南省年平均降水量线性减少率为9.8 mm/10a,其中,夏、秋季降水量减少速率较大;滇东北和滇东南区域年平均降水量减少趋势较为明显.