基于不确定性分析的矿区重金属健康风险评价模型

摘要

Health risk assessment model for heavy metals was developed to describe the heavy metal concentration uncertainties in mining area in aquatic environment using interval numbers.With Cu,Pb,Zn,Cd,Ni and As selected as evaluation factors,the model was applied to health risk assessment of surface water efflux in a copper mine in the period from 2007 to 2009.The evaluation result showed that the health risk level of surface water efflux from 2007 to 2009 was between classes II and VI and the highest was in level V.The health risk levels of surface water at location A are respectively II,H and V,and those of location B V,VI and V,which showed that the health risk levels of location B are higher,while the health risk levels at location A in three years increase,indicating that the environment of surface water at location A tends to deteriorate.%利用区间数表示水环境中重金属质量浓度的不确定性,构建了基于不确定性分析的矿区重金属健康风险评价模型.选取Cu、Pb、Zn、Cd、Ni和As为评价因子,将模型应用于2007 -2009年某铜矿区周围地表水健康风险评价中.评价结果表明:2007-2009年,该矿区周围地表水健康风险水平介于Ⅱ～Ⅵ级之间,其中V级比例最多；A环境监测点的地表水健康风险等级分别为Ⅱ、Ⅱ、V,B环境监测点的地表水健康风险等级分别为V、Ⅵ、V,说明B环境监测点的地表水健康风险水平较高；而在3年中,A环境监测点的地表水健康风险等级有所提高,说明A环境监测点的地表水环境质量有恶化趋势.