Surface subsidence caused by metro construction can endanger the safety of the surrounding buildings and underground pipelines. How to forecast and control the deformation has becoming an urgent problem in engineering area. The paper has discussed three forecasting ways: Regression analysis method, Exponential smoothing method and Gray theory analysis method, forecasted the ground subsidence caused by shield, mining and foundation construction of Guangzhou metro and compared the forecasting results with the construction measured data. Also the paper has discussed the three ways' suitable for using of construction methods, the range of geological conditions and the problems that should be mind in use based on the analysis results.%地铁工程施工引起的地表沉降常常危及周边建筑物或地下管线的安全,如何有效预测和控制地表沉降已成为工程中亟待解决的问题.论述了三种常用的变形预测方法--回归分析法、指数平滑法和灰色理论分析法,分别利用这三种方法对广州地铁土建工程盾构法施工、矿山法施工和明挖法施工引起的地表沉降进行了预测分析,并与工程实测监测数据进行了对比分析,论证了各种预测方法适用的施工工法、地质条件范围以及使用时应注意的问题.
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