卡拉水电站田三滑坡体风险分析

摘要

Risk analysis of lanndslide is one of the critical factors for the selection of dam site. Through field investigation and data analysis of Tiansan landslide in Kala hydropower station. risk analysis model is established. With Bayes statistical methods and Monte Carlo method to determine the parameters. considerinh the combination of rainstorm state. water-storage conditions. earthquake and other conditions. the analysis of stability. surge and river blockage of Tiansan landslide are done.Risk analysis of Tiansan landslide provides experience for failure mechanism in the region. which will facilitate the determining of the dam sire selection%滑坡体的风险分析是决定坝址比选的控制性因素之一.通过对卡拉水电站田三滑坡体现场勘察和数据分析.建立滑坡风险分析模型;利用Bayes优化法以及蒙特卡罗(Monte-Carlo)统计方法确定计算参数;考虑暴雨、蓄水、地震等工况组合,对田三滑坡体进行了稳定性、涌浪以及堵江分析.田三滑坡体风险分析结果为该地区滑坡失稳探讨提供借鉴,进而为坝址选择提供决策依据.