我国能源强度与能源价格市场化关系研究

摘要

本文研究了能源价格波动性与能源强度之间的动态均衡关系，并进行了 GARCH 计量模型的实证检验以及两组估计结果的对比分析。研究发现，在市场化定价机制相对完善的情况下，能源价格与能源强度之间的负相关动态均衡关系才是存在的，如果国内缺乏市场化定价机制，能源价格提高非但不能降低能源强度，反而会因为能源替代而提高能源强度。%　　the paper studies on the dynamic equilibrium relationship between energy intensity and market-oriented energy price in china, uses GARCH to test the model, and make a comparative analysis between the results. The output shows that the negative correlation dynamic equilibrium relationship between energy intensity and energy price can be found based on the relatively complete market-oriented pricing mechanism. While if the market-oriented pricing mechanism is not complete, raising energy prices will not lower down energy intensity. Maybe, the energy intensity will be increased because of the energy substitute relationship.