陕西省经济增长与环境污染的关系研究--基于时间序列数据的实证分析

摘要

本文基于陕西省1991-2010年的时间序列数据，运用EVIEWS 软件对陕西省环境污染与经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明，人均实际GDP 与工业废气排放量之间呈“U型“右侧曲线关系；人均实际GDP 与工业烟尘排放量呈单调递减关系；人均实际GDP 与二氧化硫排放量呈“倒N 型“曲线关系。最终根据拟合曲线预测环境污染趋势，并提出相关政策建议。%This research is based on the time series data of Shaanxi province from 1991 to 2010, using EVIEWS to empirically analyze the relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth in Shaanxi province. The analysis results show that the relationship between the real GDP per capita and industrial waste gas emissions appears to be the right side of the “U-type”curve. The relationship between the real GDP per capita and industrial soot emissions is monotonically decreasing. And the relationship between the real GDP per capita and sulfur dioxide emissions appears to be the “inverted N-type”curve. Finally based on the fitting curve to predict the tendency of the environmental pollution and put forward the relevant policy suggestions.